Today's stock market


"Investors have different objectives but it's the same market for everybody. Personal views and temperaments can negatively impact a portfolio if they're not aligned with the realities of the market's condition." - Paul Thornton, Investor Boot Camp


Is the surge in oil a trap?

The oil market exploded rising 9.31% in Wednesday's session. The gain was so large and unexpected it undoubtedly stirred the bull in many investors. But are the energy markets and energy stocks buys?

The gain in oil (W.T.I.C.) was enough to clear a five day range. That's a bullish start but let's look at the condition of the oil market further.

In the chart below you can see oil is still range bound. In fact a quick view of the price action shows the single session gain is relatively insignificant. THe chart below is just six monthls long but the second chart below is three years encompassing most of the bear market period.

In the long term view of oil the market is in the context of a range approximately six months long. It's marked by the orange box. This range is part of a longer range extending back to the spring of 2015. Technically, it is part of a bottoming out process.

What comes next for oil?

The key to a consistent winning approach in managing a portfolio is to address the question "how do I know"? If the answer is speculative in nature results are inherently uncontrollable. What does the market in oil say about what's next?




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Can the stock market go higher?


"If riding stocks lower is sound financial management then mathematicians have got it wrong." - Paul Thornton, Investor Boot Camp


Can the stock market go higher?

The stock market has been powering up since the U.S. presidential elections. But in just three weeks time something has developed that may blindside investors.

A lot can be said about the Donald Trump stock market but details will be left out of today's analysis. What we will focus on is one indication of the conditions of stocks in the U.S. market.

The Nasdaq has been the leading stock market indicator since the '70's. It is therefore the most useful insight into broader conditions as far as the more significant market averages are concerned.

From the charts below here's what is evident. The number of stocks advancing has reached a peak. Historically, this measure has been reliable as a broader market correction drops the number of stocks from this condition.

What comes next?

Without this indicator the market's internal condition may not be evident. What matters next may be more about how investors handle it than what actually happens in the stock market.



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Commentary including ideas, historical and other market indications are not investment advice. Statistics and other data may be from other sources and may be inaccurate or incomplete. See Full Disclaimer.

The market is the news!


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